TWO BIG WHEELS VISITED HANOI
Last week, Hanoi welcomed two VIPs' visits who might help the Communist regime solve its problems concerning the country economy.
On February 21, World Bank President James D. Wolfhensohn has urged Vietnam Communist government to prepare a Comprehensive Development Framework (CDF) without delay. The bank president was on a three-day visit to Vietnam.
While recognizing Vietnam's achievements in poverty reduction, the WB President asserted that further progress should depend on a comprehensive approach to development, reported Hanoi state-controlled news agency VNA.
"Development demands a balance between social, structural, human, governance, environmental, economic and financial elements. This demands an approach which is comprehensive, inclusive, country-led and focuses on outcomes rather than inputs," he was quoted as saying.
He pointed out that such a framework will help create concerted efforts to deal with the increasingly heated issues faced by nations in the current globalization process, such as the gap between the rich and the poor, and environmental problems. He also said, "Development is about much more than the improvement of economic indicators." And he added that it is required that Vietnam domestic private sector be liberated and the confidence of foreign investors be rebuilt.
On the other hand, the WB president warned foreign investors that their pressure on the Communist regime wouldn't be successful. He urged them to continue their investments, which have dropped from US$ 2 billion to US$ 600,000 a year in 1999.
During the last few years, despite the fact that economic growth reached 8 to 9 percent before slowing down to less than 6 percent in 1999, the Communist leaders keep resisting further reforms that are badly needed to improve the economic environment and to regain high growth. One of the most important reforms is in the state sector.
Since the mid-1990s, they have been trying to delay the promised privatization (equitization) of the 6,000 state-owned enterprises, many of which have suffered great losses for decades and still operating with state subsidies. The Communist Party leaders are reluctant to proceed because they are not ready to abandon the last remnant of Marxist-Leninism, which is "state-owned playing the leading role in the national economy." Without power over the economy, the leaders could have nothing else to assert their authority.
Besides, privatization of the state-owned enterprises means a lot of workers and incapable leading officials will be sacked whenever they are turned to private management. They are faithful party members and cadres who are enjoying lucrative and comfortable positions as the rewards from the party. That is why top Communist leaders are in the most serious dilemma.
Facing pressure by foreign investors and international donors, the Communist leaders could do nothing more than displaying their obstinacy, disregarding the ultimate interests of the Vietnamese people. With lessons learned from the guerrillas lying in ambush, the Communist bosses often win the competition of patience. The World Bank president is only another credulous and impatient Western big wheel who has no time to waste in pressing the stubborn leaders for concessions.
As for the World-Bank-supported projects, the Vietnamese are doubtful about their effectiveness. Usually such projects have been implemented with below average success because of ill-management and uncontrolled corruption. Worse than that, in many cases, allocated budgets have not been spent because of unfeasible projects due to inaccurate estimation and ill-planning.
Many projects have been planned for inappropriate locations, either because of ill-planning or priority that the government giving as rewards to the inhabitants' faithfulness and contributions to the Communist party.
Investors who are Vietnamese émigrés are not credulous. They are always expecting that all their investment could be lost because of overnight changes of the laws and regulations without notice. The newly amended Law of Enterprises does not promise good help to investors. Executive regulations to put the law into practice could be ambiguous and depend on explanations of officials in charge of application.
In another news report, U.S. congressman Bill Archer said on Wednesday, February 23 that he had told Vietnam Communist Party government it was impossible to start a new round of negotiation on the stalled bilateral normal trade relation pact. Representative Archer, (R-Texas), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said he had stressed to Hanoi's new Trade Minister Vu Khoan that the pact should be signed before the U.S. presidential election later this year.
Archer said it could be more difficult if the pact is delayed beyond this election year as the new political environment is unpredictable.
According to other reports, Hanoi would raise some "points for discussion," that would not amount to renegotiations on parts of the pact.
The pact would have been formally signed last year if Hanoi had not broken its previous agreement to the deal. Since then, Hanoi has not said much about the pact, acting as if it were not interested much about the deal. According to many observers, the deal has stalled due to disagreement within the Vietnam Communist Party Politburo about the advantages of further economic reforms required to implement the pact and the threat it would pose to party ruling power.
Breaking agreements already made permanent has been nothing uncommon in the Vietnam Communist regime in deals between government agencies from village to ministry levels. Every contract or agreement could be broken by either side at any time. Communist leaders have also acted similarly in many foreign relation issues along with their obstinacy tactic.
Washington, represented by Archer, reacted efficiently in telling Hanoi that there would be no renegotiations of the deal. Patience and calculated resolution is the best way in relations with Hanoi.
Another important visit
is of the newly appointed Hanoi foreign minister, Mr. Nguyen Dy Nien in Beijing. Visiting Beijing as his very first task after Nien replaced his predecessor Nguyen Manh Cam clearly indicates that Hanoi is turning to China Communist regime at least as its temporary ally.Nguyen Dy Nien was warmly welcomed with rather loud publicity at his arrival in Beijing on Feb. 25. Before his departure, Nien asserted that there were four basic favorable conditions in strengthening relations with China.
1. Both regimes are communist with many similarities.
2. Both parties have had historic and traditional relations for a very long time which are always the favorable foundation and point of departure for higher goals.
3. Both regimes have high political resolution to build and to boost bilateral relations corresponding to their potential and positions. The resolution has been manifested in the strategic guidelines set by the two parties' general secretaries during Le Kha Phieu's Feb. 1999 visit in Beijing: neighborly friendship, comprehensive cooperation, long term stability and future-oriented thinking.
4. Since re-normalization, mutual relations have come to a new era and attained valuable achievements and experiences to assure both regimes of bright prospects.
Nguyen Dy Nien's trip is an indication that Hanoi is making use of enhanced relations with China to ease pressure from the West for further reforms in Vietnam for the time being. The trick proves that in a long run, Hanoi could stay beside China should a major conflict break out in East and South East Asia.
Beijing influence in Vietnam may have been greater than some people estimated.
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