VIETNAM, NEWS ANALYSIS, FEBRUARY 12, 2000.

This year, Tet celebrations were held as usual by Vietnamese in Vietnam as well as in cities of the United States, Canada, Australia, France, Japan and many European countries. Tet, or Lunar New Year in Vietnamese, is the most important holiday to the Vietnamese.

Though Tet is a tradition born from Chinese civilization, it is observed in Vietnam with many differences compared to the Lunar New Year held in China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan. It is a mixture between the Chinese culture modified by the Vietnamese along the course of history, and the Vietnamese own cultural peculiarities. One of the unwritten ethical law strictly observed even by thuds is not to do any mental or physical harm to others during the three days of Tet.

The 1968 Tet Offensive launched by the Communist forces all over key cities in South Vietnam was a perfect ruse, delivered the South Vietnamese a total surprise, a major factor in military strategy and tactic. As to ethical consideration, however, it was a heinous crime against the innocent people who were enjoying the three-day peace, believing that the two sides would be abiding by their truce agreement.

In the United States, the biggest Tet fairs were in San Jose, North California, where over 120,000 Vietnamese are living and in Orange County, South California, an area resettling more than 200,000 Vietnamese. The biggest parade, however, took place in San Jose. Some 50,000 people got together to watch dozens of colorful floats and marching blocks representing student bodies of several universities and colleges in North California, the alumni associations of well-known girl high schools in pre-75 South Vietnam, former Republic of Vietnam Armed Forces branches and corps, units and military services. Also participating in the parade were many groups of American students and other ethnic groups in the Santa Clara County.

In Vietnam, public celebrations with many events - musical presentations, contests, dramas, fireworks - were organized by local governments. The most entertaining events took place in Hanoi and Saigon. The people, however, were not so joyful.

Tet season this year saw gloomy future economy. Business was slow, consumer goods market was flat. All was caused by people's low purchase power while economy growth promised nothing optimistic. The bilateral normal trade relation with Washington is still bogged down in the Politburo unstable ground. Most observers confirmed the situation as the despair of foreign investors.

More than ten years after the Vietnam Communist Party (VCP) reluctantly opened the domestic market to foreigners, now investors realized that in the early 1990s, they had wrongly estimated the possibility of a potential economy in Vietnam, which they thought would probably become a tiger in Asia in the near future.

They were right about the fact that Vietnam has a cheap labor force which is talented, well trained, industrious and creative. But they didn't predict the great impediments usually insurmountable coming from the Communist regime, not from the labor force. So foreign investors are responsible for their own failure.

Furthermore, 90 percent of the 76 million people are so poor. Their poverty could not be alleviated in a foreseeable future under the current regime despite its optimist declarations. Such a poor population does not have a purchase power high enough to assure a stable domestic market.

According to the London-based weekly Economist in its recent issue, many investors are withdrawing from Vietnam as quickly as when they came in. The others cancelled many business projects.

The main reason is not because an outcome of the 1997 Asia financial crisis, but only because the VCP leaders are persistently sticking to Communism, too concerned about their ruling power and political security.

Many observers agreed that Hanoi dared not further economic reforms as Beijing is doing, contending that political stability is indispensable to economic development. Moreover, incorrigible corruption, unmitigated authoritarianism and ill-management add more unbearable burden to investors.

Some Vietnamese said that "the VCP regime could only become a political hyena, never an economic tiger in Asia."

But it is apparent that in the Year of the Dragon, the VCP regime is facing serious troubles besides economic problems in different domains.

As to political security front, Cambodian authorities reported that the anti-Communist group "Free Vietnam Government" planned to set off bomb attacks at many VCP government installations in Vietnam, or even in Cambodia, on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of Saigon being overrun by Communist North Vietnam on April 30, 1975. According to the report, Cambodian and VCP authorities have detected the scheme in their joint investigation efforts.

Before Tet, Hanoi announced a decision that worries many young people in Vietnam. According to Decision 18/2000/QD-TTg signed by Phan Van Khai, Hanoi prime minister on February 3, a national highway to be constructed this first quarter will begin from Hoa Lac in Son Tay township of Ha Tay province, west of Ha Noi, and end in Saigon's Binh Phuoc Cross Road.

Part of the highway will follow the historic Truong Son (Long Mountains) path known as the Ho Chi Minh Trail and used for decades by North Vietnam Communist forces to infiltrate South Vietnam and transport military supply to their units during the Vietnam War.

The Hanoi state-run news agency said a budget of 5,300 billion "dong" (US$ 378.5 million) will be needed for the 1,070-km first phase of the project, which has been designed to be completed in 2003.

The original project had been introduced by Vo Van Kiet, former prime minister. It required a fund of more than US$ 5 billion and planned to employ about 600,000 workers, voluntary and compulsory, to build the highway under the control of more than 500,000 soldiers. The ambitious project was rejected by Hanoi National Assembly as extravagant and foreign donors refused to grant aid.

Last week, Khai took the decision without formal approval by the National Assembly. Though its role is a little more than a rubber stamp, some of its members' arguments if the project is debated in an assembly session, might ignite larger public opposition. The project still requires a large amount of money from the national budget although it was reduced to a smaller scale as road capacity and quality are concerned.

The VCP government certainly intends to use the project as a solution for its two problems.

The north-south new highway, parallel to the existing Highway 1 along the seaside would primarily serve military purposes as a strategic route to support would-be operations on the Long Mountains areas, and as an alternative to Highway 1 in case the coastal roads should be destroyed by war or natural disaster.

On the other hand, the project would absorb - possibly under the law of labor obligation - part of the millions of unemployed young farmers and rebellious city youth, who might spark unrest at any time.

The project would only built new parts of the highway crossing uninhabited jungles and mountain passes, not including the section of more than 700 km from Saigon to Dak Sut, about 70 km north of Kontum. This section was first constructed by the French colonialist government before 1945, known as National Highway 14. In the early 1960s the South Vietnamese government widened and paved HW 14. So now it would require only upgrading.

Workers would face health hazards from adversary conditions in the jungle areas such as high humidity, malaria and other tropical sicknesses.

As to the economy, the project could help develop the few areas of Kontum, Pleiku and Darlac provinces along the highway. During the last decades, more and more North Vietnamese have been resettled in the region.

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