VIETNAM, NEWS ANALYSIS, APRIL 3, 1999

"It's time that the Vietnam Communist Party welcome constructive ideas for the economic reform from people who are not party members," said Nguyen Xuan Oanh, who had been an economic advisor to the Vietnam Communist government.

Mr. Oanh, 80, a prominent economist graduated from Harvard University, once had been a governor of the State Bank and later deputy prime minister in charge of economy in the Republic of (South) Vietnam. After Apr 30, 1975, he was put under house arrest for 9 months.

Since the early 1980's, Saigon city Communist leader Nguyen Van Linh who became VCP General Secretary later, employed Mr. Oanh as his advisor. When Linh climbed to the top post in the regime, he managed to have Oanh elected to the Communist National Assembly, serving the regime as an official economic advisor to the Hanoi government.

Mr. Oanh said in an interview with Reuters that it's important that the VCP should allow people who are not party members to participate in the jobs of making decisions on economic reforms proposed by the VCP, and quickly carry out the second phase of economic reforms.

According to Oanh, most of those who are the best are not present in the government He also said, it's time that the VCP proceed the second renovation. The current renovation is very good but not enough.

Management still has many obstacles and banking system is still too weak.

As to the currency, Mr. Oanh noted that Communist leaders think that devaluation is very bad, and that it causes the loss of their money. But to economists like him, devaluation is only an adjustment and does not result in any loss. He said the 20-percent devaluation since 1997 is not sufficient and another 20-percent devaluation is needed if Hanoi wants its exports to be highly competitive.

Dr. Nguyen Xuan Oanh is the most competent observer on the economy in Vietnam as he was contributing a large part in the "renovation" or so-called economic "restructure" and establishing regulations for foreign investment in the mid-1980's. He was once highly appreciated by Communist top leaders. But many times his plans failed only because the Communist government often change horses in midstream. Communist leaders and their subordinates do not have sufficient formal education to thoroughly understand complicate economic and financial policies that Oanh proposed.

Sometimes, Communist officials change the courses of actions midway only because they want to show off that they do grip the matter well enough as any one else.

The best description of the Communist government by Dr. Oanh is about how it react to foreign advice. He confirms that the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have failed to urge the Communist government to have further reforms. The more pressure international organizations put on Communist leaders, the more they are stubborn. But at last they always take the advice.

Obstinate rejection first has been a Communist tactic in almost every negotiation with friends or foes.

 Meanwhile, Hanoi Prime Minister Phan Van Khai, on his trips visiting Japan and Australia this week, has admitted that his government does not expect to attain 5 to 6 percent growth in 1999 as planned.

In Tokyo and in Australia, Phan Van Khai and his delegation were facing protests by hundreds of Vietnamese émigrés. In Australia, protesters shouted anti-Communist slogans, calling for democracy and human rights everywhere Khai's delegation showed up - in Canberra, Sydney and Melbourne. Khai and his men had to get in the meeting places by side entrances.

In the conference in Sofitel Hotel, Melbourne, a group of many Vietnamese students from the émigrés community along with many Western reporters in Australia, raised scores of questions. But Khai only accepted written questions and responded only to the three that he had carefully selected. He only did what every Vietnamese Communist leader was doing in the same situation.

A Vietnamese woman rose from her seat and asked Khai that if there was democracy in Vietnam today, why he dared not answer all the questions. Because of the woman's complaint, his men hastily cut short the press conference.

As tension was growing, when Khai arrived at Canberra, Australian local police cordoned off several blocks around the place where Khai was attending a conference in which reporters were not allowed. The protests really scared him.

Despite the fact that Khai and his delegation were facing angry protesters, Hanoi news agencies reported that he was warmly welcomed by the Vietnamese in all the cities he was visiting.